2050 Predictions

Computing

  1. In the United States, VR & AR headset/glasses adoption will be the same, or greater, than smartphone adoption in 2023.

  2. In the United States, smartphone adoption will follow the same trajectory as landline phone adoption, declining precipitously over the next three decades as they are replaced by VR/AR headsets/glasses.

Geopolitics

  1. The US share of the global economy will be the same or greater.

  2. China’s economy will be smaller than that of the United States.

  3. The size of China’s economy, relative to that of the United States, peaked in 2021.

Transportation & Urban Development

  1. In the United States, the share of days worked remotely will rise from ~28% to more than 50%.

  2. In the United States, the percentage of travelers making a 250-mile trip that choose flight will increase from less than 1% to more than 50%.

  3. The majority of passenger trips will be taken by flight instead of by car.

  4. In the United States, the percentage of goods shipped via rail will decline from 28% as it is supplanted by electric truck and airship.

  5. The Seattle Metropolitan Area will increase from ~5,900 sq mi to more than 50,000 sq mi.

  6. The world’s tallest building will increase from 828 meters (~0.5 miles) to more than 3 miles.

Space Exploration

  1. At least one person will have landed on the moon for the first time since 1972.

  2. At least one person will have touched Martian soil.

Education

  1. The percentage of 25 - 40 year olds with a college degree will decline from 38% to less than 10%.

  2. All 50 states will have ESA programs.

  3. In K-12, private microschools will eclipse public schools as the dominant form of education (and daycare), with more than 50% of students enrolled in a microschooling option. Public K-12 education will represent less than 10% of students under 18 years of age.

Biotechnology & Aging

  1. In the United States, multiple drugs will have been approved and be readily available, that entirely halt, or even reverse, the biological aging of specific organs in the human body (i.e. heart, lungs, skin, etc.).

  2. In the United States, at least one person will have to replaced their failing human organs with lab-grown organs, except for the brain.

  3. There will be at least one provably 40 year old dog in the world. There will be at least one 50 year old cat.

  4. Cancer will drop out of the top 5 causes of death in the United States.

Finance & Crypto

  1. The vast majority of fiat currency issuance and transaction volumes will happen on public blockchains. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will take the lion’s share of this activity.

  2. Fiat currencies, to the extent they are still used, will be priced in BTC. BTC will be more valuable than all fiat and crypto currencies, but not assets, combined.

  3. In the United States, the federal government will collect tax revenues denominated in BTC.

  4. The compound annual growth rate of the US stock market over the 2023 - 2050 period will meet or exceed its 6-7% average return after adjusting for inflation.

Thomas Hepner1 Comment